Owner: The Slow Eater
Team: The Chefs 2.1
Odds: 9/2

(1) Chris Johnson
(20) Ryan Grant
(21) Calvin Johnson
(40) Joe Flacco
(41) Dwayne Bowe
(60) Jonathan Stewart
(61) Jeremy Maclin
(80) Jason Witten
(81) Ben Roethlisberger
(100) Michael Bush
(101) Derek Anderson
(120) Devin Aromashodu
(121) Montario Hardesty
(140) Mohamed Massaquoi
(141) Sam Bradford
(160) Ryan Longwell
(161) Steelers D/ST

You can’t argue much with the Slow Eater’s first 8 picks. He took his time making the picks, but he ensured that all 8 selections delivered. The biggest question is his second starting QB, and if that’s where the questions begin, things aren’t so bad. With Big Ben on the shelf for at least four weeks, can Anderson and Bradford do enough to keep him competitive? I probably would’ve insured Roethlisberger with another QB and let Witten drop given the depth at TE this year. The bench depth is strong as well with good upside RBs and two WRs high on Mr. Roto’s list.

Owner: Steve Stevens
Team: Gorilla Juiceheads
Odds: 12-1

(2) Adrian Peterson
(19) DeAngelo Williams
(22) Roddy White
(39) Carson Palmer
(42) C.J. Spiller
(59) Terrell Owens
(62) Donovan McNabb
(79) Donald Driver
(82) Tony Gonzalez
(99) Mark Sanchez
(102) Jacoby Jones
(119) Darren McFadden
(122) Jermaine Gresham
(139) Dexter McCluster
(142) Ravens D/ST
(159) Stephen Gostkowski
(162) Roy E. Williams

Maybe Steve Stevens should’ve rediscovered his strategy of being heavy on the Lions this year (when it might actually work) as opposed to putting together the best team to compete in Madden 2006. It all fell apart with a major reach on Carson Palmer in Round 3 with QBs like Flacco and Kolb still on the board. You could argue that Steve’s second QB (McNabb) should have a better year than Palmer (who looked like dogshit against the Jets during last year’s playoffs) and yet he took Palmer three rounds before McNabb.

I know we’re a 2QB league, but Palmer was ranked 136th in ESPN’s rankings. Having Mark Sanchez as the third QB doesn’t exactly make you feel confident in the position. The question marks continue after that. After White, the next two receivers in Owens and Driver are well past their primes. CJ Spiller isn’t guaranteed to keep the carries once Fred Jackson returns. Tony G is a year away from retirement. I’m not sold on McCluster or Gresham bringing anything to the table this year.

Owner: Bruno
Team: Blue Steel
Odds: 10-1

(3)    Ray Rice
(18)    Larry Fitzgerald
(23)    Shonn Greene
(38)    Beanie Wells
(43)    Eli Manning
(58)    Vincent Jackson*
(63)    Mike Sims-Walker
(78)    Brent Celek
(83)    Vince Young
(98)    Santana Moss
(103)    Derrick Mason
(118)    Lee Evans
(123)    Nate Burleson
(138)    Jake Delhomme
(143)    Eagles D/ST
(158)    Bernard Scott
(163)    David Akers

Bruno went with the strategy of a power trio at RB and it’s as good as any in the league. The QBs are a sore point for the team, though, with Manning a clear third-tier QB, Vince Young being involved in a run-first offense, and Delhomme being…well Jake Delhomme. Fitzgerald’s status as a dependable WR1 might be in question this year with the pathetic QB situation the Cardinals are bringing to the table. Vincent Jackson might not play a game this year, so taking him in the sixth round is wasting a pick.

Things get better from there, however, as Sims-Walker, Santana Moss, Derrick Mason, Lee Evans, and Nate Burleson all have the ability to be valuable players. He panicked by taking that many receivers to compensate for the Jackson flub and left himself very short at RB depth with only a backup in Bernard Scott. At least Celek has the ability to be a top 5 TE, so he was drafted in the appropriate spot.

Owner: Mr. T
Team: The A-Team
Odds: 5-1

(4)    Frank Gore
(17)    Matt Schaub
(24)    Rashard Mendenhall
(37)    Steve Smith
(44)    Michael Crabtree
(57)    Kevin Kolb
(64)    Antonio Gates
(77)    Pierre Garcon
(84)    Marion Barber
(97)    Clinton Portis
(104)    Ahmad Bradshaw
(117)    Bernard Berrian
(124)    Thomas Jones
(137)    Josh Freeman
(144)    Laurent Robinson
(157)    Panthers D/ST
(164)    Rob Bironas

This is one of the first years where I came out of the draft with mixed feelings. I’m happy with my QB duo of Schaub and Kolb as both teams will be throwing early and often. The selection of Gore at #3 overall was based on the MJD’s recent knee issues. (Ed. Watching Mr. T wince as Ray Rice went at #3 was the highlight of my draft.) Mendenhall was a steal at #24 given the possibility of him being a top 8 RB this year. I feel confident that I’ll be able to run out a quality RB at the flex every week with a rotation of Barber, Portis, and Bradshaw, which also provides me with RB depth for a trade.

The issues lie at WR where I feel I’m lacking elite talent. I’m not high on Brandon Marshall, so I passed on him for Carolina Steve Smith, who has his own set of issues to deal with. Crabtree had more upside than Welker in the fifth round and Garcon could emerge as a top receiver given the splits he had compared to Reggie Wayne in the second half of last season. To compensate for the lack of a top-flight WR, I drafted Gates, who can put up numbers better than some WR2s, as the first TE taken. I was also very surprised to see Bernard Berrian there at #117 given that he’s the only 100% healthy receiver in Minnesota these days.

Owner: Black Irish
Team: The Borg
Odds: 14-1

(5)    Maurice Jones-Drew
(16)    Miles Austin
(25)    Reggie Wayne
(36)    Felix Jones
(45)    Matt Ryan
(56)    Percy Harvin
(65)    Jay Cutler
(76)    Fred Jackson
(85)    Chris Chambers
(96)    Kyle Orton
(105)    Ricky Williams
(116)    Todd Heap
(125)    Dez Bryant
(136)    Chester Taylor
(145)    Packers D/ST
(156)    Leon Washington
(165)    Adam Vinatieri

Drafting from a rankings sheet published back in June, Black Irish struggled to put a competitive team together without the luxury of auto-drafting again this year. MJD’s knee scares me and the rest of his RBs have concerns, as Felix Jones’ role isn’t completely defined (and taking him over Wells, Foster, Best, Addai, and McCoy probably wasn’t prudent), Fred Jackson is coming off injury while fighting the upstart in Spiller, and Ricky Williams has to share the backfield with Ronnie Brown again. Austin and Wayne provide the second strongest WR duo in the league, but Harvin’s migraine and general injury concerns make me wary. Chambers was a major reach in round nine with a plethora of receivers (S. Moss, Mason, Berrian, Jones, and Aromashodu to name five) still on the board. The QBs lack elite talent as both Ryan and Cutler come into the year with questions.

Owner: Marble Ryan
Team: The Queso Kid
Odds: 11/2

(6)    Michael Turner
(15)    Philip Rivers
(26)    Greg Jennings
(35)    Anquan Boldin
(46)    Arian Foster
(55)    Jahvid Best
(66)    Matthew Stafford
(75)    Hakeem Nicks
(86)    Jerome Harrison
(95)    Chris Cooley
(106)    Robert Meachem
(115)    LaDainian Tomlinson
(126)    Kenny Britt
(135)    Matt Moore
(146)    Willis McGahee
(155)    Giants D/ST
(166)    Jeff Reed

Marlbe Ryan always values tremendous upside potential when drafting, and this year went in that direction again this year after his first two selections. That said, we’re all wondering about Rivers given the Vincent Jackson situation. Did he panic after a run of QBs in Round 2? Jennings should return to ‘08 form and Boldin is great, but we always wonder if he can stay healthy for a full season.

The real upside can be found in the picks starting in round five. Arian Foster is having a beastly preseason in one of the league’s best offense and Javid Best looks like the real deal. Sam’s got plenty of Lions’ exposure with the investment in Matt Stafford, but you can’t fault him given the remaining QBs on the board at the time. Cooley was a high quality TE selection in round 10 as Washington insiders are saying we should be prepared for a big season from him. I’m a little concerned with the WR depth as I’m not as high on Meachem or Britt when compared to later selections like Gaffney, Massaquoi, and Mike Williams (guys who look like WR1s on their teams).

Owner: Cousin Bowser
Team: Team Bowzer
Odds: 9-1

(7)    Andre Johnson
(14)    Randy Moss
(27)    Brett Favre
(34)    Brandon Marshall
(47)    Joseph Addai
(54)    Brandon Jacobs
(67)    Dallas Clark
(74)    David Garrard
(87)    Justin Forsett
(94)    Chad Henne
(107)    T.J. Houshmandzadeh
(114)    Jason Campbell
(127)    Steve Slaton
(134)    Nate Kaeding
(147)    Cowboys D/ST
(154)    Laurence Maroney
(167)    Austin Collie

Cousin Bowser seemed well on his way to fielding a competitive team until he realized that his Excel model didn’t account for the fact that we’re a 2-QB league. Johnson and Moss were a nice way to start the draft, but the pick of Favre in Round 3 could prove to be a major mistake. There’s uncertainty surrounding Favre considering he put grease into his ankle this week and Rice’s height not being around to save high throws. He would’ve been better off taking flyers on younger QBs like Flacco, Kolb, and Stafford in later rounds and going with Jamaal Charles or Ryan Mathews in that spot.

The RB situation is rather weak as Addai isn’t adept enough to lead a staff, Jacobs’ productivity has left his coaches wanting, and Forsett doesn’t seem to have won over Pete Carroll despite his success last season. Dallas Clark was a strong pick in Round 8, but Bowser overcompensated for his QB issues by drafting depth a little earlier than he should have. Garrard, Henne, and Campbell are all mid-tier guys who are the personification of mediocre.

Owner: Michael J. Cox
Team: Jack@PoopShutePartyime.com
Odds: 4-1

(8)    Aaron Rodgers
(13)    Tony Romo
(28)    DeSean Jackson
(33)    Pierre Thomas
(48)    LeSean McCoy
(53)    Wes Welker
(68)    Vernon Davis
(73)    Ronnie Brown
(88)    Malcom Floyd
(93)    Matt Cassel
(108)  Cadillac Williams
(113)  Louis Murphy
(128)  Jabar Gaffney
(133)  Tim Hightower
(148)  Vikings D/ST
(153)  Mason Crosby
(168)  Tim Tebow

As we get near the end of the draft order, it’s pretty clear that these teams were focusing on securing high end QBs once the best RBs were off the board. After being stuck with Jake Delhomme for too many years, Michael J. Cox ensured that he would walk away with two strong QBs by going with Rodgers and Romo as his first two picks. He hasn’t wanted to rid himself of something so much since Tera Patrick gave him gonorrhea during the filming of Eat Pray Bukkake.

His RBs didn’t suffer as he was able to get good value with Thomas and McCoy, two guys who could put up strong seasons, and Ronnie Brown, who’s a beast if he can stay on the field. He even insured himself by grabbing Cadillac and Hightower as his bench RBs, finally taking guys for his bench who have solid NFL roles. His WR corps is well balanced, and while Louis Murphy wasn’t a great pick with better guys (Berrian, Aromoshadu, etc.), the selection of Gaffney showed strong Gator pride and a WR who played well with Orton at the end of last season. And at the very least, the last round pick of Tebow puts God on his side.

Owner: Torry Hallelujah and The Mysterious Mr. Tzatziki
Team: White Sauce: The Two Sauces
Odds: 7-1

(9)    Drew Brees
(12)    Steven Jackson
(29)    Ryan Mathews
(32)    Jamaal Charles
(49)    Matt Forte
(52)    Steve Smith
(69)    Jermichael Finley
(72)    Mike Wallace
(89)    Johnny Knox
(92)    Alex Smith
(109)    Steve Breaston
(112)    Donald Brown
(129)    Santonio Holmes
(132)    Mike Williams
(149)    Eddie Royal
(152)    49ers D/ST
(169)    Matt Prater

Despite being adept enough at math to create numerous spreadsheets, the Sauce will have to figure out how one squeezes FOUR RBs into THREE starting positions. Don’t get me wrong, the RBs (Jackson, Mathews, Charles, and Forte) are all worthy of their draft position (although concerns exist with Mr. Forte), but I’m not sure how you can survive with your fifth round picking being your first bench player.

Rumors are circulating about the Sauce’s lack of trust in Charles led to the selection of Forte, but why take Charles if there’s that much concern?

The Sauce really got a raw deal when no elite WRs were waiting for them in the fifth round, but that’s when you have to have to reach with a QB, WR, or TE with some upside as opposed to taking a backup RB. They’re relying on owners like Bowser who might need to trade for a RB down the line, but how long will the team suffer until that happens? After all that, things were good for the Sauce. They drafted seven WRs with the hope that 3 or 4 of them would raise their game to the next level. Jermichael Finley could be the #1 TE by the time all is said and done this year, so at least they’ve got that upside going for them. Alex Smith has their full backing as a #2 QB given that they chose not to draft a third QB hoping they can fall into this year’s Josh Freeman. The final verdict is the team is competitive, but a notch below the preseason top-four of The Slow Eater, Marble Ryan, Michael J. Cox, and myself.

Owner: Lafayette Gold
Team: Smoke and Mirrors
Odds: 10-1

(10)    Peyton Manning
(11)    Tom Brady
(30)    Cedric Benson
(31)    Marques Colston
(50)    Chad Ochocinco
(51)    Knowshon Moreno
(70)    Hines Ward
(71)    Reggie Bush
(90)    Braylon Edwards
(91)    Dustin Keller
(110)    Matt Hasselbeck
(111)    Jets D/ST
(130)    Javon Walker
(131)    Darren Sproles
(150)    Devery Henderson
(151)    Garrett Hartley
(170)    Mike Bell

We end the draft recap with the team who surprised all by choosing to select in the 10th spot. The move raised eyebrows across the league and is conceivably what encouraged the Sauce to go with Brees at #9, knowing that’s who S&M really wanted the whole time. Lafayette Gold settled with Manning and Brady as his quarterbacks and you can’t really knock him for taking Benson or Colston, although there might be players with higher upside. Things get interesting from there. Public consensus is that Ochocinco will be down this year with less balls coming his way, Hines Ward is on his last legs in an offense being prepared to run more regardless of Ben missing four weeks, and Braylon Edwards couldn’t catch an STD at a whore house in Brazil. Things aren’t much better with the running backs with Moreno nursing a hamstring injury (never a good thing for a RB), Reggie Bush being incapable of producing more than double digit games than one-point efforts, Sproles is carrying Ryan Mathews’ jock, and Mike Bell is a non-factor. Dustin Keller was a Purdue homer pick in the tenth round with Cooley sitting there on the board.

In the NFL draft, about 70% of the time, a QB is taken with the #1 overall pick. More often than not, the selection is prompted by the relative importance of the position than the actual player himself. And almost always, the QB going #1 (and getting an ever-increasing guaranteed contract) has some issues that the drafting team is going to need to either fix or work around. Alex Smith had less than ideal arm strength, Sam Bradford never played under center, Eli Manning was mentally weak from growing up in a family where he was the outcast, Jamarcus Russell was Jamarcus Russell – you get the idea.

Stafford’s weakness? Playing in a pro-style offense at UGA (way too pro-style – they never win anything), Matt Stafford didn’t put up the Japanese manga-level exaggerated numbers we’re used to seeing from top college QBs, but his situation in Detroit is actually much more fantasy-friendly than any hand he was dealt while in Athens.

Yes, Stafford is a bit of a clown, often photographed poolside or fratside with the ladies engaged in various stages of reach-around (sometimes he’s playing it conservative on the small of the back, sometimes he’s all in with a fist full of under-boob). But by all accounts he is a smart kid, and we don’t need to talk about what is going on with that arm. He has top-4 talent, and with the weapons he has around him and the likelihood of a lot of 45-35 games, I think he has a chance to be a top-20 fantasy scorer in 2010.

Now, because all the idiots in my league are copycats, I’ll have to take Stafford in Round 6. But rest assured, I’ll be putting my money where my mouth is.

Hate: Jay Cutler (QB – CHI)
Cutler isn’t exactly a guy people are fighting over, so the fact that I hate his fantasy prospects might not be breaking news. Also, I’ll preface this by saying it’s easy to forget that Cutler is only a 4-year starter (he’s only one year older than the Next Great Young QB, Aaron Rogers), and at just 27 years old, anything is possible. But, this Mike Martz offense that Cutler will inherit in 2010 is really a terrible fit.

Cutler is a graduate of the Dan Marino School of Quarterbacking: he understands the offense on little more than a conversational level, and instead relies primarily on talent and instincts to get the ball where it needs to be. The problem is, only one guy has ever had the talent and instincts to pull off this style of play, and it ain’t Jay Cutler.

Yes, he’s got a cannon, but he’s late on virtually every throw. With the receivers he’s got and within the timing-oriented Air Martz offense, that is not going to fly. The fact is, for all the talk of Mike Martz’s offensive “genius,” more QBs have failed under his regime than have succeeded. I’m just not buying Cutler as a top-10 QB this year, and I know that’s not necessarily his consensus draft position, but if he’s a guy on your board I suggest you get him off and go with the other rifle-armed frat boy mentioned in this piece.

Sleeper Love: Jeremy Maclin (WR – PHI)
A glance over top-200 reveals a lot of names that I will not be interested in. It’s just that kind of year, and by definition that means that there are a lot of guys I like who won’t be one everyone’s lists – not where they should be, at least.

My personal favorite from this group is Jeremy Maclin, poised to take over the #1 WR spot in pass-happy Philadelphia this year. DeSean Jackson is great, and yes he did lead the Eagles in targets last year with 117. But in 2010, I expect Maclin’s role as the possession receiver to really blossom, and under a best case scenario he’ll be a frequent substitute for what should be a shaky running game.

Everyone knows that DeSean Jackson does not catch the ball inside the 20, a problem for your WR1. In 3-WR leagues, Maclin is surely worth a look in Round 8 as a potential starter, especially if you decided to go QB-heavy and missed the boat on a lot of those outside horses. This guy is a fantasy starter.

Sleeper Hate: Montario Hardesty (RB – CLE)
This is a guy often on the mind of the fantasy uber-nerd, but I happen to think all this attention is misplaced. Hardesty is a rookie RB out of Tennessee whom a number of people have slated to take over the starting role in Cleveland because Jerome Harrison is “too small.” The speculation has been intense enough to render Harrison a sleeper in his own right, but we can debate the merits of the diminutive workhouse another time (he got about 115 carries in the final 3 games in 2009, just sayin’.)

Last year there were a couple of high-profile rookie RBs in Beanie Wells and Donald Brown (higher picks than Hardesty, therefore greater investments) who, despite preseason hype similar to that surrounding Hardesty, were unable to unseat the incumbent starters.

I’ve said this before: yes, RB is the easiest transition from college to pro, but this is still the NFL, and unless you’re a world-class freak show talent, you can’t just walk in the door and start pushing away grizzled veterans who know what they’re doing, especially if, like Hardesty, that player misses the ENTIRE training camp with injury.

Hardesty may snake a couple TDs, but he’s not the starter, Harrison is, so when it comes time to load up on your sleepers, let someone else take the total, unequivocal, blind bet on Montario Hardesty.

But there are positive things going on in Kansas City other than the barbecue. Last year, Dwayne Bowe found himself in the same spot as Charles and it ruined his season. This season, however, Bowe has decided to take it upon himself to really shove it in Haley’s face. He showed up to training camp in the best shape of his career and that’s not because of last year’s motivational tactics. Bowe is smart enough to realize that Charlie Weis is now the offensive coordinator, and that there’s nothing Fat Charlie likes to do more than throw around the ol’ pigskin around. Matt “Don’t call me Sam” Cassel has a year of Todd Haley’s offense under his belt, the O-line is in better shape, and there will be a running game – regardless of who gets the starting gig.

All of these factors are pushing Bowe towards a career year. Now we just have to cross our fingers that he doesn’t have his grandma send him more of that “cramp medicine” that got him suspended for four games last year.

Hate: Brandon Marshall (WR – MIA)
Over the last three years Brandon Marshall has been consistent, having totaled at least 100 catches, 1,100 yards, and 6 touchdowns in the last three seasons, which is nothing to scoff at. Unfortunately for Marshall supporters, this season he’s decided to take his talents to South Beach. And while the weather there may be nice, he’s going to run into a few road blocks:

1. Miami is a run-first team. These aren’t Dan Marino’s Dolphins. Chad Henne is still the QB, and if the coaching staff watched him in college, they’ll know not to put too much weight on him. The guy friggin’ lost his shoe on the most important snap of his senior year against Wisconsin for Christ’s sake!
2. WRs who change teams don’t necessarily get off to great starts. Just look at how TJ WhosYourMomma (CHAMPIONSHIP!) did in Seattle last year.
3. He’s going to be sexually frustrated the whole season having to compete for chicks at the bar with Lebron, Wade , and Bosh. (RILEY GOT EM ALL!) There’s no double rainbow awaiting him because the ladies already have their legs spread for the Giant Royal Penis.

This is not a situation Marshall will thrive in. He’s talked about how he could play basketball professionally, so maybe playing point guard for the Heat is a better option for him. Now give it to me again. GIVE IT TO ME AGAIN!

Sleeper Love: Michael Bush (RB – OAK)
I think we’ve all come around on the idea that Darren McFadden is too fragile to stay on the field. While Oakland’s passing game still needs some work despite the addition of Jason Campbell, they’ve had the ability to run the ball for the last number of years. Bush should see the majority of carries all season and isn’t getting the respect a starting running back should get in drafts right now.

Sleeper Hate: Reggie Bush (RB – NO)
We go from one Bush to another, a la Dirk Diggler in Boogie Nights, but this one reeks of STDs. When are people going to realize that Reggie Bush is an absolutely worthless fantasy player? The guy had double digit points in only three games last year and had less than five points in seven games. He’s injury prone, he can’t run north, and he’s too busy messing around with the finest stars the Latin Grammys have to offer. Steer clear of the Reggae this year and every year.

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Subscribe to the podcast on iTunes, or download it directly to your computer.

Why listen to me? What makes me better than everyone else? People constantly come to me with questions because they know I’m the best resource for information out there. Those that once scoffed at the notion of my fantasy dominance have since slithered out of the dark alleys to pepper me with roster questions. To this day, people still talk about the time when I drafted out of the passenger seat of a car on I-95 while eating two Big Macs — blind, with no printed rankings. And yes, I walked away with the title that year.

So, without further ado, I present the following things you need to be aware of as you prepare for your fantasy draft. And above all else, remember the Golden Rule: the man with all the gold…rules.

1) Be prepared
Don’t take your rankings from too many sources. Keep it simple and just focus on one set of draft rankings that you trust. Go ahead and use websites to gather information on what’s happening in training camp and the preseason to help craft your opinions, but remember: it’s your pick, not Matthew Berry’s. You’re the one who has to live with it. Figure out who you want to target, circle them, and then go get ‘em. And always have three guys in mind when your pick is approaching. No one wants to wait for you.

2) Stay risk averse early
Don’t be an idiot and draft a guy with tremendous upside potential who isn’t slated to go in the first four rounds. Your first four picks are the core of your franchise. How’d that Darren McFadden pick work out for you the last two years? Yeah, I thought so. You need to be safe with your early picks and get risky later. Otherwise it’s like riding the town bicycle without your helmet. Better to be safe than sorry.

3) Avoid timeshares whenever possible
One must adjust with the times; therefore we’ve added a new rule in this space. Timeshares are rampant in the NFL these days, and you don’t want your starting RBs to be part of a tandem (or trio) if you can help it. Draft RBs who are the clear #1s on the depth chart and avoid those who have to split carries. You wouldn’t your girlfriend or wife splitting time between you and the UPS guy, so take the same approach with your starting backfield.

4) Draft for depth – in the right places
If you draft Rodgers, Manning, or Brees, don’t worry about drafting a backup QB early. If your starter gets hurt, you’re probably screwed no matter what. Draft bench guys at other positions who you can trade later. And don’t draft strictly by team need – in the later rounds, go for the best player available. Who’s going to be more valuable if your starting WR goes down? A break-out RB you can flip for a receiver or a TE who’s 8th in the league in catches?

5) Never assume trades are available
I just stressed that you should draft depth, but don’t sacrifice your starting line-up to make that happen. At the end of the day, you’ll need to go to war with your starting lineup and drafting five RBs in your first seven picks won’t help your case. You can’t assume you’ll be able to trade one of them for a starter at another position because it might take you four weeks to make the deal. Assumption is the mother of all fuck-ups. The season is too short to make assumptions. If you’re good enough, you’ll be able to grab someone in the next round that could possibly be traded.

6) Don’t draft a kicker until the last round
I say the same thing every year, and I’ll keep saying it until people prove they’re not absolutely retarded. The difference between the first few kickers off the board and the waiver wire guys is usually no more than a couple points per week. Plus, there are always one or two studs who go undrafted. Actually, if you’re in a league with me, draft a kicker before the last round. I’ll buy you a beer with my winnings.

You know who you should start?

Alex Smith (QB – SF)
He had a terrible game last week, but he was decent before then, and nothing brings out the fantasy points in a quarterback than getting to go against the Lions.

Michael Bush (RB – OAK)
Be sure to stay aware of Justin Fargas’ health, but after his 133-yard rushing performance last week, Bush has earned himself the start. Going against the Browns 29th ranked run D, he could be a fantasy championship difference-maker.

Larry Johnson (RB – CIN)
Here’s a flex play for you desperate owners out there. You think Larry Johnson doesn’t want to run the ball down his former team’s throat? Because I’m pretty sure he does. And with this being a game the Bengals should easily win, look for them to give Cedric Benson a bit of a rest and allow LJ to get some work in.

Derrick Mason (WR – BAL)
Sitting a mere 72 yards away from his eight 1000 yard season in 9 years, Mason should hit that number and then some against the weak Pittsburgh pass D. As they showed last week against the Packers, the Steelers aren’t stopping any aerial attacks, and the Ravens should take advantage of that this week.

Fred Davis (TE – WSH)
Getting a chance to show his heavily-hyped talent, Davis has responded with 5 TDs in his past 4 games. He’s become Jason Campbell’s favorite target, and that trend should continue this week.

You know who you should sit?

Brett Favre (QB – MIN)
And the long-predicted late-season swoon is upon us! After putting up numbers comparable to the best of his career for most of the season, Favre has put up back-to-back weak games. The Chicago defense is very vulnerable, and Favre did put up monster numbers against them earlier in the year, but I’m going to give the edge to Father Time and the cold Chicago weather. Another long day for Favre is in the works.

David Garrard (QB – JAX)
For my final Sit ‘Em column of the year, I might as well go back to what has been my constant refrain. You don’t start David Garrard on the road. Don’t even think about it.

Rashard Mendenhall (RB – PIT)
The Steelers seem to lean more heavily on their aerial attack the more desperate they are for a win, such as in last week’s 500 yard explosion from Roethlisberger. This leaves Mendenhall behind, and against the Raven’s tough run D, he’s not someone you want to be relying on.

LeSean McCoy (RB – PHI)
With his carries already being cut into by Leonard Weaver, it looks like McCoy might now have to also deal with the return of Brian Westbrook. With all three said to be getting carries this week, this is a situation you want to stay far away from.

Reggie Wayne (WR – IND)
This weekend’s winner of the “which stud WR gets to be shut down by Darrelle Revis?” award. Add to that the fact that Wayne has been underperforming for weeks now, and that the Colts’ starters might not play much and you have a recipe for disaster.

The time has come. Week 16 is upon us and if you’re still reading our website, it means you’ve either got a secret crush on Torry Hallelujah or you’re about to play for a fantasy championship. Waivers are as important as ever this week as you look to put forth your best lineup. While you have the advantage of facing less competition for the best players in the pool, the fantasy Gods have given us only a few scraps to mess around with. We rarely offer waiver advice on this site because we’re so worried about revealing information to other owners, but we’re throwing you a bone with only one remaining.

Jerome Harrison (RB – CLE) – Owned in 10.3% of ESPN leagues
What the fuck happened here? Yeah that’s right, Harrison’s name now sits third on the list of most rushing yards in a single game. I bet you never expected that in the preseason or as late as five weeks ago when he was third string. Marble Ryan was right all along. It’s a shame he couldn’t account for Mangini’s incompetence of starting an inferior back in Jamal Leiws all season. Harrison should be picked up and started as a low end RB2 or flex with the Raiders on his schedule this week.

Matt Moore (QB – CAR) – Owned in 0.2% of ESPN leagues
He’s owned in 0.2% of leagues for a reason. Let’s stay away from this guy even if he’s playing a Giants team with a banged up secondary. There are other quarterback options this week like…

Alex Smith (QB – SF) – Owned in 37.2% of ESPN Leagues
Smith tops the charts for free agent quarterback pickups this week if you’re worried about Manning or Rivers not getting a full run. Other ideas if Smith isn’t available include VInce Young and not much else.

Maurice Morris (RB – DET) – Owned in 2.7% of ESPN leagues
Again, what the fuck happened here? Morris found his inner Barry Sanders with over 100 yards and a TD on Sunday. He’s still dog shit and I wouldn’t have any faith in him going forward. If you take out his long TD run, his remaining carries averaged 3.8 yards. I’m willing to take the chance that he doesn’t have another big TD run in him. Chris Johnson, he is not.

Michael Bush (RB – OAK) – Owned in 15.0% of ESPN leagues
When asked why Bush hasn’t seen more of the field this year, Raiders coach Tom Cable made excuses about gameplan and situation. Bush seems like the obvious choice in Oakland, but then again not breaking an assistant coach’s noise seems like the obvious choice too. We’ve been fooled by Bush before, so everyone calm down. I’m not willing to risk him as a flex play this weekend.

Justin Gage (WR – TEN) – Owned in 14.8% of ESPN leagues
Gage returned from injury in style with two touchdowns over the weekend. This week the Titans face a Chargers team with nothing to play for, but you can still expect San Diego to put some points on the board. Gage isn’t a horrible WR3 option, especially in deeper leagues, but you can’t have complete faith in any WR you grab off waivers this late in the season. Unlike RBs, they don’t fall of trees.

Fred Davis (TE – WAS) – Owned in 18.5% of ESPN leagues
You should’ve picked him up already. What the hell are you waiting for? He’s scored touchdowns in four consecutive games and is only owned in 18.5% of leagues!?! Maybe people are asleep at the wheel as Owen Daniels remains owned in 48.4% of leagues, but names like Olsen, Shockey, Carlson, Keller, and even Shiancoe can make room for Davis.

Cardinals D/ST - Owned in 66.4% of ESPN leagues
Owners looking to swap defenses week to week can look at Arizona as their first choice. The Rams have the worst offense in the league these days and Keith Null on the road just smells turnover friendly.

49ers D/ST - Owned in 49.9% of ESPN leagues
If you can’t snag Arizona, San Francisco should be your second option.

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Week 15 presents another tough-looking slate of games, and the only conclusion I can come to is that after a slow start, Vegas has gotten really good at this. Either that or I’ve just lost my mojo after another 1-1 performance last week.

With nothing jumping out at me this week, I’ve turned to desperate measures. Having had success earlier in the year picking a game I wasn’t really all that passionate about, tirelessly dissecting every aspect of it until I reached a conclusion, I’ve decided to try out a similar methodology for Week 15. This time, I turned to an online random number generator, picking 1 through 16 with the games numbered based on the order Mr. T sent me the spreads, to come up with my target. The random generator seemed appropriate, since so much in football, and in the universe in general, comes down to the Great Unknown. How did I finish last in the RexQB standings but 3^rd in points? A handful of random events into which I had no insight and over which I had no control. Why are you bald? Do you think it’s because your mother’s father was bald? You’re wrong. Genetics are completely random. Your maternal grandfather could have a Garciaparra-esque mane that makes onlookers gasp, while you traipse about this world blinding your friends with sunlight reflections off your shiny white Duomo. This game I’m about to bet on will no doubt come down to a series of random events, each of which taken on its own is no more significant than a fly’s fart, but combined will determine the flow of millions of dollars. Anyway, the random number generator came up 2, which corresponds to Saturday’s affair between the Saints and the Cowboys. Let’s try to figure out which way the fly’s farts will blow.

The Saints will be the home team, giving up 7.5 points to the struggling Cowboys. The ‘Boys have lost two in a row, neither game a blow out but both indicative of the teams historical weaknesses that have been present for several years now. In Week 13 against the Giants, the Cowboys put on a pretty impressive display, outgaining the Giants by nearly 100 yards and dominating time of possession by over 17 minutes. But the Cowboys figured out a way to lose in the end, giving up just a handful of key plays, including a 74-yard TD pass to the lead-footed Brandon Jacobs, that determined the unfavorable end result. The Week 14 contest against the Chargers displayed the Cowboys’ notorious lack of toughness, with Demarcus Ware acting like he had died after sustaining an injury no more severe than what one might experience during cunnilingus of average intensity at most.

Constantly being on the wrong side of the game’s biggest plays and a displaying such a lack of toughness are not problems for the Saints. New Orleans is a very highly publicized 13-0, and in the last two weeks has come out victorious due purely to moxie and showing up when it mattered most. In Week 13 in Washington, the Saints scored 10 4^th quarter points, including a 33-second, 80-yard drive to tie the game, and maximized momentum with an overtime field goal. Last week, in a tough divisional game on the road in Atlanta, New Orleans was pushed around a bit, but appeared in control throughout, earning a lopsided time of possession result. In both games, New Orleans missed its spread, but the circumstances and the opponents were far different than what we’re dealing with this week. After all, it is December, and the Cowboys are fighting for their lives, which is another way of saying the cowboys are going to die. A primetime game in the Superdome is no place you want to be gasping for air, as our boy Tawmmy Brady can attest. I think a 10 point victory seems reasonable here, so let’s take the Saints and hope the bleak randomness of the universe smiles on us all in Week 15.

The pick (home team in caps): NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) over Dallas

Season record: 13-7