Lock of the Week, Week 15

The Marble Ryan Lock of the Week

saints

Week 15 presents another tough-looking slate of games, and the only conclusion I can come to is that after a slow start, Vegas has gotten really good at this. Either that or I’ve just lost my mojo after another 1-1 performance last week.

With nothing jumping out at me this week, I’ve turned to desperate measures. Having had success earlier in the year picking a game I wasn’t really all that passionate about, tirelessly dissecting every aspect of it until I reached a conclusion, I’ve decided to try out a similar methodology for Week 15. This time, I turned to an online random number generator, picking 1 through 16 with the games numbered based on the order Mr. T sent me the spreads, to come up with my target. The random generator seemed appropriate, since so much in football, and in the universe in general, comes down to the Great Unknown. How did I finish last in the RexQB standings but 3rd in points? A handful of random events into which I had no insight and over which I had no control. Why are you bald? Do you think it’s because your mother’s father was bald? You’re wrong. Genetics are completely random. Your maternal grandfather could have a Garciaparra-esque mane that makes onlookers gasp, while you traipse about this world blinding your friends with sunlight reflections off your shiny white Duomo. This game I’m about to bet on will no doubt come down to a series of random events, each of which taken on its own is no more significant than a fly’s fart, but combined will determine the flow of millions of dollars. Anyway, the random number generator came up 2, which corresponds to Saturday’s affair between the Saints and the Cowboys. Let’s try to figure out which way the fly’s farts will blow.

The Saints will be the home team, giving up 7.5 points to the struggling Cowboys. The ‘Boys have lost two in a row, neither game a blow out but both indicative of the teams historical weaknesses that have been present for several years now. In Week 13 against the Giants, the Cowboys put on a pretty impressive display, outgaining the Giants by nearly 100 yards and dominating time of possession by over 17 minutes. But the Cowboys figured out a way to lose in the end, giving up just a handful of key plays, including a 74-yard TD pass to the lead-footed Brandon Jacobs, that determined the unfavorable end result. The Week 14 contest against the Chargers displayed the Cowboys’ notorious lack of toughness, with Demarcus Ware acting like he had died after sustaining an injury no more severe than what one might experience during cunnilingus of average intensity at most.

Constantly being on the wrong side of the game’s biggest plays and a displaying such a lack of toughness are not problems for the Saints. New Orleans is a very highly publicized 13-0, and in the last two weeks has come out victorious due purely to moxie and showing up when it mattered most. In Week 13 in Washington, the Saints scored 10 4th quarter points, including a 33-second, 80-yard drive to tie the game, and maximized momentum with an overtime field goal. Last week, in a tough divisional game on the road in Atlanta, New Orleans was pushed around a bit, but appeared in control throughout, earning a lopsided time of possession result. In both games, New Orleans missed its spread, but the circumstances and the opponents were far different than what we’re dealing with this week. After all, it is December, and the Cowboys are fighting for their lives, which is another way of saying the cowboys are going to die. A primetime game in the Superdome is no place you want to be gasping for air, as our boy Tawmmy Brady can attest. I think a 10 point victory seems reasonable here, so let’s take the Saints and hope the bleak randomness of the universe smiles on us all in Week 15.

The pick (home team in caps): NEW ORLEANS (-7.5) over Dallas

Season record: 13-7

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