Rex Grossman Is Our Quarterback

Two weeks ago I resigned myself to the fact that whether I liked it or not, I was just going to have to ride out Marble’s winning streak until things turned around and he fell back down to earth. Looks like I didn’t have to wait very long.

With his confidence now thoroughly shaken, it looks like Marble’s headed back to the same well that landed him a win with the Lions three weeks ago. A well named Jim Zorn. While I ordinarily like the idea of sticking with a winning trend until you get beat on it, I can’t get behind a strategy that involves regularly backing dogshit teams, and KC definitely fits that description. Don Draper couldn’t sell me on this bet. Even Joan Holloway couldn’t sell me on this bet. Well, maybe she could.

That said, I’m totally fine with the Eagles bet. There are a handful of teams in the NFL that should be 20+ point underdogs every week unless they are playing each other and the Raiders are one of them. It looks like the parity in the NFL over the past two decades has made Vegas forget how to make lines for games like these. They will get up to speed on it pretty fast, but it’s definitely a good idea to cash in on it while you can. I’m even willing to temporarily lift my no tease rule until the big favorites stop covering. My play this week is a mammoth three-team tease with all of the double-digit favs (Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Philly). Gotta bet big to win big, folks.

Speaking of the Raiders, with the actual games out of the way, let’s move on to what’s become hands down my favorite gambling scenario of the season. I swear on my imminent marriage to Christina Hendricks that I did not make up the following five Raiders related props, but I am betting some of them so I’ll try my best to give a serious write-up for each.

1) Will Tom Cable be fired before all legal action for his case is resolved? Yes -250, No +195

I’ve got 2 units on a big yes here because civil lawsuits and employment disputes can take a really long time to resolve, and there’s been no indication that Tom Cable is going to plea or settle out of court on this thing. He could be fired just for being a terrible coach before the legal aspects of this thing are completely over.

2) Will Tom Cable be suspended by the NFL for punching Randy Hanson by the end of the 2009 NFL season? Yes -200, No +150

This is a definite 2 unit yes as well. The investigation seems to be pretty far along and based on what’s been reported about the facts of the case I don’t see Goodell hesitating to suspend him once charges have been filed. There’s just no way that you can have a guy clocking in for work who punched a subordinate in the face.

3) If Tom Cable is suspended during the 2009 NFL season, will the team have a better record during Tom Cable’s suspension? Yes -120, No -110

I’ll take a yes for 1 unit, thank you very much. The way I see their schedule playing out, they have one winnable game over the next 6 weeks and two winnable games over the last 6 weeks. They could very easily lose every remaining game that Cable coaches so I’m willing to roll the dice a little here that they pull off a win late in the season if he gets suspended. If he’s suspended in the next four weeks this bet is as good as won.

4) My personal favorite: which will be higher for Week 6 of the 2009 NFL Regular Season, Derrick Anderson Completions (-2, -125) or Oakland Raiders total points scored vs the Philadelphia Eagles (+2, -105)?

I’m actually not betting this one, I just thought it was f-ing hilarious. Who should be more embarrassed to be included in this prop, DA or the Raiders? And what kind of analysis yielded the 2 point/completion spread? So many questions…

5) How many more games during the 2009 NFL Regular Season will Darrius Heyward-Bey play in which he will be held without a catch? (o/u 3.5, o -110, u-120)

I just need to move out to Vegas already and go to work for the Mirage. Those guys are having too much fun for their own good.